The spectacle of UFC Freedom 250, aka the White House Card, has overshadowed the actual thing that's happening on Satur- I mean, Sunday night, which is a stacked card full of relevant matchups. Let's dig in because this promises to affect the immediate trajectory of at least three weight classes and the career prospects for up and coming players in the lightweight and middleweight divisions.
Ilia Topuria Just Might Be The Man
It's wild that we are living through the peak of Ilia Topuria's career, in which the mildly disputed Lightweight champion is arguably a top two pound-for-pound fighter and at 29 years old has just entered the peak years for an elite athlete (traditionally speaking, that's age 28-32).
Topuria represents the latest evolution in the meta game of mixed martial arts: footwork. Mixed martial arts has a long history of evolution, and it's notable that the scope of what represents each era's meta component gets a bit narrower as time passes. For example, the skill gap between strikers and grapplers was bridged twenty years ago by cross training and the emergence of sprawl-and-brawlers like Chuck Liddell and Mirko Cro Cop (Filipovic). As the general population of fighters became well rounded and familiar with all aspects of fighting, the way they used shared techniques mattered more. For example, about ten years ago we saw the emergence of volume striking steadily increase and correlate with championship belts, particularly from Max Holloway.
Now, the importance of footwork has emerged as a deciding factor at the championship level. Long gone are the days of Alexander Gustafsson and Jon Jones jogging halfway around the cage to reset themselves for striking exchanges (hopefully). The most recent example of how footwork separates champions from contenders would be the pair of successful title defenses by Alexander Volkanovski versus Diego Lopes. It's disheartening to watch a bigger, younger, faster fighter chase the smaller champion around the cage for 50 straight minutes, and declining to incorporate cage cutting or pivoting into his rematch strategy.
All this is to say that while power is the last thing to go, and Justin Gaethje certainly will walk into the cage with a puncher's chance, you have to be able to hit the guy first. Ilia Topuria is not invincible if you remember him getting head kicked almost unconscious by Jai Herbert. And he is not afraid to throw down and exchange hard shots in the pocket, but it is his ability to remain in charge of positioning that allows him to dictate the results of every one of his career fights to date.
Justin Gaethje's Swan Song, But Where Are The Leg Kicks?
Justin Gaethje's legacy is set. The man put his body on the line for most of his career and we have reaped the madness he sowed. I used to go back and watch his UFC debut fight against Michael Johnson just for fun. His leg kicks are legendary and the visible pain and hobbling they caused Dustin Poirier was actually scary to watch. Khabib Nurmagomedov acknowledged that they were doing enough damage to force the champ to search for a finish lest he absorb too many and find the fight slipping out of his hands.
However in recent fights the leg kicks haven't played nearly as prominent a role. Gaethje is getting older and decidedly slower. Perhaps those big muscle groups just aren't up to the task anymore, but this might be the last time we see Gaethje in the cage and it's definitely his last time as a title challenger so please Justin, leave it all in the cage. Leg kicks and all.
Sean O'Malley Might Be Relevant Again
I've heard it said that Sean O'Malley might be the biggest American star the UFC has. It's painfully true. To be fair, I very much enjoy watching the Montanan fight. Long, lanky strikers are one of my favorite styles to watch and O'Malley will never coast when he's at an advantage. Aiemann Zahabi could be called a trap fight, in which the younger and decidedly more athletic O'Malley has to win because he should win, and I believe he will.
For all his brashness and bravado, O'Malley has consistently shown himself to be a gamer. The young man rises to the occasion and when given the chance to be in the spotlight he relishes the opportunity. He doesn't crack under pressure, and in an ideal world we would see O'Malley demand a title shot against Petr Yan, who I suspect would welcome the chance to get back that loss.
Derrick Lewis, We Hardly Knew Ye...
Derrick Lewis doesn't look like he wants to fight anymore, but has Josh Hokit truly recovered from his 15 minute slobber knocker with Curtis Blaydes? This fight has "fun" written all over it, but the heavyweight division hasn't been fun in a long time.
Hokit took a hellacious amount of punches in the Blaydes fight and while he should defeat the aging Lewis, there are doubts, apprehensions and suppositions in my brain that won't rest.
Can Alex Pereira's "Black Magic" Break The Heavyweight Division's Curse?
As stated in the Lewis vs Hokit assessment, heavyweight has not been fun in a long time. There was a time when we had to get through multiple interesting title fights just so we could see the other interesting title fights. I'm talking about the era of Cain Velasquez, Junior Dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, Mark Hunt, Travis Browne, Josh Barnett, Daniel Cormier. That's more relevant heavyweights than we've seen in the past three years.
Obviously the division was cursed when Jon Jones entered it, and only the "Black Magic" (as named by Jiri Prochazka) of Alex Pereira can break the spell. Things are uncertain, and while I cannot predict the outcome of the fight I'll lay out two ways things can go and which fighter stands to win in each scenario.
It's a fight. If we see Pereira use his leg kicks and pressure to force exchanges, then history can be made with the UFC's first ever three-weight class champion. Ciryl Gane is a natural athlete and his relaxed nature is a double edged sword. The casual demeanor has allowed him to maintain pace and volume through multiple rounds. However that nonchalance is not up to the task when Gane has found himself facing driven, determined fighters who embrace competition. Jon Jones is a vicious competitor and Francis Ngannou was fighting for his entire future when he toughed out a win with a torn ACL. Pereira is that kind of competitor, we saw it in the Ankalaev rematch and in his taunting of Jamahal Hill at UFC 300. The man carries a fire in his belly and Gane is not one to bite down on his mouthpiece and gut it out to the finish line.
It's a sparring match. If Ciryl Gane is allowed to find his rhythm, dance around Pereira and live off his jab, then the Frenchman will be victorious. This could happen if Pereira has finally met his size limit. It's a great meme about how he grows to rival the size of every opponent regardless of weight class but there are limits to his physicality. The Jan Blachowicz fight has been conveniently swept under the rug in the Alex Pereira mythology, but the big man can be shook.