HomeFight CalendarRankingsUpdatesStories
Subscribe
Fight Analysis

Why Ilia Topuria Is the Realest Threat to Islam Makhachev

For years, the answer to "who beats Islam Makhachev?" was a shrug.

Now it has a name. And a mustache. And a promise.

Ilia Topuria says he'll submit him. Makhachev says bring it. The fight is being built — and for the first time in a long time, Makhachev fans aren't completely relaxed.

Here's why this matchup is different.


Both men have run out of doubters to silence

Let's set the table. In 2025, both fighters became double champions.

Makhachev vacated lightweight, moved up, and took the welterweight title from Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322. Topuria left featherweight, moved up to lightweight, and knocked out Charles Oliveira at UFC 317 for the vacant belt.

Two undefeated kings, climbing in opposite directions, on a collision course. You couldn't script it better.


The stylistic problem for Islam

Makhachev wins by imposing a system: pressure, level change, takedown, top control, finish. It has broken everyone.

But that system has a price — he has to get inside. And the most dangerous place to be against Ilia Topuria is exactly that: in range, in a phone booth, mid-exchange.

Remember the only time Islam was ever stopped? A counter left hand as he came forward. Topuria's entire game is built on counters off forward pressure.

That's the nightmare scenario in one sentence: the one way to beat Makhachev is the one thing Topuria does best.


The case for Makhachev (it's still strong)

Don't bury him yet. If Islam gets the fight to the mat, the conversation changes completely.

Topuria's takedown defense has never been tested by a wrestler at Makhachev's level. Nobody in the lightweight or welterweight division grapples like a Dagestani-trained champion. One clean entry, and Topuria is fighting off his back for 25 minutes against the best top player alive.

So the fight becomes brutally simple:

Striking range = Topuria. Mat = Makhachev.

Whoever forces their world wins.

"Don't be surprised when I submit him." — Ilia Topuria


Why it actually matters

Most "superfights" are nostalgia. This one is a real question with no obvious answer — two primes, two undefeated records, two opposite blueprints.

Makhachev has spent his career making elite fighters look ordinary.

Topuria has spent his making legends fall asleep.

One of those streaks ends the night they meet. That's why you can't look away.