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Fight Analysis

Why Ilia Topuria Is the Realest Threat to Islam Makhachev

For years, the answer to "who beats Islam Makhachev?" was a shrug.

Now it has a name. And a mustache. And a promise.

Ilia Topuria says he'll submit him. Makhachev says bring it. The fight is being built — and for the first time in a long time, Makhachev's fans aren't completely relaxed.

Here's why this one is different from every other "contender."


Two kings, climbing in opposite directions

Set the table first. In 2025, both men became two-division champions — in the same year.

Makhachev vacated lightweight, moved up, and took the welterweight title from Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322. Topuria left featherweight, moved up to lightweight, and knocked out Charles Oliveira at UFC 317 for the belt Islam left behind.

Two undefeated champions, passing each other on the stairs. You could not script it better.


The one way to beat Islam is the one thing Ilia does best

Makhachev wins by imposing a system. Pressure. Level change. Takedown. Top control. Finish. It has broken everyone.

But that system has a toll booth — he has to get inside.

And the single most dangerous place on Earth against Ilia Topuria is exactly that: in range, in a phone booth, mid-exchange.

Remember the only time Islam was ever stopped? A counter left hand as he stepped forward. Now look at Topuria's entire career — built on counters off forward pressure.

That's the nightmare in a single sentence: the one proven way to beat Makhachev is the one thing Topuria has done to everybody.


But don't bury Islam yet

Here's the other side — and it's just as real.

If Islam gets this fight to the mat, the whole conversation flips.

Topuria's takedown defense has never been tested by a wrestler at this level — because there isn't one. Nobody grapples like a Dagestani-built champion. One clean entry and Topuria is fighting off his back for 25 minutes against the best top player alive.

So strip away the noise and the fight is brutally simple:

Keep it standing, it's Topuria's night. Put it on the mat, it's Makhachev's. Whoever forces their world, wins.


Why you can't look away

Most "superfights" are nostalgia dressed up as a main event.

This one is a real question with no clean answer. Two primes. Two undefeated records. Two opposite blueprints.

Makhachev has spent his career making elite fighters look ordinary.

Topuria has spent his making legends fall asleep.

One of those streaks ends the night they finally meet.

That's not hype. That's just the math.